Mexico’s 2012 Elections

Clare Ribando Seelke
Specialist in Latin American Affairs

Given the close and complex relationship that the United States has with neighboring Mexico, the results of the July 1, 2012 Mexican elections are of interest to U.S. policy makers. As Mexico does not allow consecutive reelection for any office, the results of these elections could lead to significant changes in the country’s political landscape and the Mexican government’s approach to aspects of its relations with the United States. The top issues being debated in the Mexican presidential campaign—security, economic policy, and energy sector reform—are of crucial importance to Mexico’s future and of keen interest to Congress. The policies adopted by the next Mexican President will likely have implications for U.S.-Mexican security cooperation, North American economic integration, and U.S. energy security. The legislative elections are equally crucial, as they will likely determine how easily the next Mexican administration will be able to advance its agenda through the legislature.

The polls have tightened since mid-May 2012, but analysts are still predicting that the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) will retake the presidency after 12 years of rule by the conservative National Action Party (PAN). The PRI could also capture a plurality, and perhaps even a simple majority, in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. Mexico’s security challenges and continuing poverty have left many Mexicans disappointed with the PAN and nostalgic for the order and stability they remember under the PRI, despite the party’s past reputation for corruption and undemocratic practices. Recent scandals involving former PRI governors under investigation for corruption and money laundering, and a new student movement protesting, among other things, Mexican media conglomerates’ tendency to favor the PRI, have shaken up the race.

Despite the aforementioned developments, a plurality of voters continue to express support for PRI candidates for the Chamber of Deputies and PRI presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto, a former governor of the state of Mexico. According to several polls from mid-June, Peña Nieto, running in a coalition with the Green Ecological Party (PVEM), has a double-digit lead over his opponents. Roughly 15% to 20% of the electorate remains undecided, however, and constitutes a bloc of voters large enough potentially to tip the election toward one of the other candidates. Since late May, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, a former mayor of Mexico City representing a leftist coalition led by the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), has moved into second place in most polls ahead of Josefina Vázquez Mota, a former Minister of Education standing for the PAN. Gabriel Quadri, an environmentalist from the small National Alliance Party (PANAL) aligned with the Mexican teacher’s union, continues to trail far behind in the polls.

This report provides an overview of the parties and candidates competing in the Mexican federal elections with a focus on the presidential contest, followed by a discussion of key issues in the campaign that could have implications for U.S.-Mexican relations. It will be updated after the election results are tallied. For background information on Mexico and U.S.-Mexican relations, see CRS Report RL32724, Mexico: Issues for Congress, by Clare Ribando Seelke and CRS Report RL32934, U.S.-Mexico Economic Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications, by M. Angeles Villarreal.


Date of Report: June 20, 2012
Number of Pages: 22
Order Number: R42548
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Mexico’s Drug Trafficking Organizations: Source and Scope of the Rising Violence

June S. Beittel
Analyst in Latin American Affairs

Violence has been an inherent feature of the trade in illicit drugs, but the violence generated by Mexico’s drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in recent years has been unprecedented and remarkably brutal. The tactics—including mass killings such as the widely reported massacres of young people and migrants, the use of torture and dismemberment, and the phenomena of car bombs—have led some analysts to speculate whether the violence has been transformed into something new, perhaps requiring a different set of policy responses. According to government and other data, the best estimates are that there have been slightly more than 50,000 homicides related to organized crime from December 2006 through December 2011.

It has also been suggested that the targets of the drug trafficking-related violence in Mexico have changed. In 2010, several politicians were murdered, including a leading gubernatorial candidate in Tamaulipas and 15 mayors. While fewer local officials were killed in 2011, there is concern that political violence could spike in 2012 in advance of presidential and congressional elections slated for July. Over the past few years, Mexico has come to be regarded as one of the most dangerous countries for journalists, with 10 reported killings in 2010 and another eight in 2011.

In December 2006, Mexico’s newly inaugurated President Felipe Calderón launched an aggressive campaign against the DTOs—an initiative that has defined his administration—that has been met with a violent response from the DTOs. Of the seven most significant DTOs operating during the first five years of the Calderón Administration, the government successfully removed key leaders from each of them, through arrests or by death in arrest efforts. However, these efforts add to the dynamic of change—consolidation or fragmentation, succession struggles and new competition—that generate more conflict and violence. The DTOs fragmented and increasingly diversified into other criminal activities, now posing a multi-faceted organized criminal challenge to governance in Mexico.

U.S. citizens have also been victims of the security crisis in Mexico. In March 2010, three individuals connected to the U.S. consulate in Ciudad Juárez, two of them U.S. citizens, were killed by a gang working for one of the major DTOs operating in that city. In February 2011, two U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents were shot, one fatally, allegedly by Los Zetas, one of Mexico’s most violent DTOs. In the U.S. Congress, these events have raised concerns about the stability of a strategic partner and neighbor. Congress is also concerned about the possibility of “spillover” violence along the U.S. border and further inland. The 112th Congress has held several hearings on DTO violence, the efforts by the Calderón government to address the situation, and implications of the violence for the United States. Members have maintained close oversight of U.S.-Mexico security cooperation and related bilateral issues.

This report provides background on drug trafficking in Mexico: it identifies the major DTOs; how the organized crime “landscape” has been altered by fragmentation; and analyzes the context, scope, and scale of the violence. It examines current trends of the violence, analyzes prospects for curbing violence in the future, and compares it with violence in Colombia. For background on U.S. policy responses to the security crisis in Mexico, see CRS Report R41349, U.S.-Mexican Security Cooperation: The Mérida Initiative and Beyond. For a discussion of the problem of violence “spilling over” into the United States, see CRS Report R41075, Southwest Border Violence: Issues in Identifying and Measuring Spillover Violence. For general background on Mexico, see CRS Report RL32724, Mexico: Issues for Congress.


Date of Report: June 8, 2012
Number of Pages: 46
Order Number: R41576
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Latin America and the Caribbean: Fact Sheet on Leaders and Elections

Julissa Gomez-Granger
Information Research Specialist

Mark P. Sullivan
Specialist in Latin American Affairs

This fact sheet tracks the current heads of government in Central and South America, Mexico, and the Caribbean. It provides the dates of the last and next elections for the head of government and the national independence date for each country.


Date of Report: May 9, 2012
Number of Pages: 5
Order Number: 98-684
Price: $19.95

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Venezuela: Issues for Congress

Mark P. Sullivan
Specialist in Latin American Affairs

The United States traditionally has had close relations with Venezuela, a major supplier of foreign oil, but there has been friction and tensions in relations under the government of populist President Hugo Chávez. Over the years, U.S. officials have expressed concerns about human rights, Venezuela’s military arms purchases, its relations with Cuba and Iran, and its efforts to export its brand of populism to other Latin American countries. Declining cooperation on antidrug and anti-terrorism efforts has been a major concern. The United States has imposed sanctions: on several Venezuelan government and military officials for allegedly helping the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) with drug and weapons trafficking; on three Venezuelan companies for providing support to Iran; and on two Venezuelan individuals for providing support to Hezbollah. In December 2010, Venezuela revoked its agreement for the appointment of Larry Palmer, nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela. The United States responded by revoking the diplomatic visa of Venezuelan Ambassador Bernardo Alavrez. Despite tensions in relations, the Obama Administration remains committed to seeking constructive engagement with Venezuela, focusing on such areas as anti-drug and counter-terrorism efforts.

Under the rule of President Chávez, first elected in 1998 and reelected to a six-year term in December 2006, Venezuela has undergone enormous political changes, with a new constitution and unicameral legislature, and a new name for the country, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Human rights organizations have expressed concerns about the deterioration of democratic institutions and threats to freedom of expression under the Chávez government. Venezuelans approved a constitutional referendum in February 2009 that abolished term limits, allowing Chávez to run for reelection in 2012. In September 2010 legislative elections, opposition parties won 67 out of 165 seats in the National Assembly, denying President Chávez’s ruling party a supermajority and providing the opposition with a voice in government. Venezuela is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on October 7, 2012, with President Chávez running against Henrique Capriles Radonski, the unified opposition candidate. While Chávez’s continued popularity and use of state resources bode well for his reelection, high rates of crime, inflation, and other economic problems could erode his support. A wildcard is the health status of President Chávez, who has had three operations and treatment for an undisclosed form of cancer since mid-2011.

As in past years, there are concerns in the 112th Congress regarding the state of Venezuela’s democracy and human rights situation and its deepening relations with Iran. Several measures have been considered or introduced related to Venezuela. H.R. 3783, approved by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on March 7, 2012, would require the Administration to develop a “a strategy to address Iran’s growing hostile presence and activity in the Western Hemisphere.” H.R. 2542, approved by the House Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere December 15, 2011, would withhold some assistance to the Organization of American States unless that body took action to invoke the Inter-American Democratic Charter regarding the status of democracy in Venezuela. H.R. 2583, approved by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs July 19, 2011, includes a provision that would prohibit aid to the government of Venezuela. H.Res. 247, introduced May 4, 2011, would call on the Secretary of State to designate Venezuela as a state sponsor of terrorism.


Date of Report: March 29, 2012
Number of Pages: 57
Order Number: R40938
Price: $29.95

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Chile: Political and Economic Conditions and U.S. Relations

Peter J. Meyer
Analyst in Latin American Affairs

Since its transition back to democracy in 1990, Chile has consistently maintained friendly relations with the United States. Serving as a reliable but independent ally, Chile has worked with the United States to advance democracy, human rights, and trade in the Western Hemisphere. Chile and the United States also maintain strong bilateral commercial ties. Total trade has grown 290% to $24.9 billion since the implementation of a free trade agreement in 2004, and the countries signed an income tax treaty designed to boost private sector investment in February 2010. Additional areas of cooperation between the United States and Chile include promoting clean energy development, supporting regional security and stability, and investigating dictatorship-era human rights abuses.

Sebastián Piñera of the center-right “Coalition for Change” was inaugurated to a four-year presidential term in March 2010. Piñera’s electoral victory was the first for the Chilean right since 1958, and brought an end to 20 years of governance by a center-left coalition of parties known as the Concertación. Since taking office, Piñera has largely maintained the open economic policies and moderate social welfare policies of his Concertación predecessors while proposing reforms designed to boost economic growth and reduce poverty. Although his political coalition lacks majorities in both houses of the Chilean Congress, Piñera has been able to implement portions of his policy agenda. He has struggled, however, in dealing with a series of large-scale protests over issues ranging from energy policy to the education system. The Chilean populace has resorted to such tactics to demonstrate its increasing dissatisfaction with the country’s political system, which it views as unresponsive to citizen demands. As the generalized sense of discontent has spread, Piñera’s approval rating has steadily declined. Halfway through his term, 29% of Chileans approve of Piñera and 64% disapprove. The political opposition has not benefitted from Piñera’s unpopularity; just 21% of the public approves of the Concertación.

With a gross national income of $173.2 billion and a per capita income of $10,120, Chile is classified by the World Bank as an upper-middle-income developing country. Successive governments have pursued market-oriented economic policies that have contributed to the development of what many analysts consider the most competitive and fundamentally sound economy in Latin America. This solid economic framework has helped the country weather recent shocks, such as the global financial crisis and a massive February 2010 earthquake. After a 1.7% contraction in 2009, the Chilean economy grew by 5.2% in 2010 and 6.2% in 2011. Strong economic growth—paired with targeted social assistance programs—has also contributed to a significant decline in the poverty rate, which fell from 38.8% in 1989 to 15.1% in 2009.

Congress has expressed interest in a number of issues in U.S.-Chilean relations in recent years. During the 111th Congress, both houses passed resolutions (S.Res. 431 and H.Res. 1144) expressing sympathy for the victims of the Chilean earthquake, and the House passed a resolution (H.Res. 1662) commending the country’s rescue of 33 trapped miners. The 112th Congress could take up issues such as the U.S.-Chile bilateral income tax treaty that was signed in 2010 and is awaiting submission to the U.S. Senate for ratification.

This report provides a brief historical background of Chile, examines recent political and economic developments, and considers current issues in U.S.-Chilean relations.


Date of Report: April 6, 2012
Number of Pages: 23
Order Number: R40126
Price: $29.95

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